NOAA
We're off to a hot start in 2020, and January sets a new brand as the warmest instance of this month that has been registered worldwide. And, as the NOAA emphasized in its monthly summary released Thursday, it did so without the warming influence of an El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, where conditions remain neutral.
Few places in the world had a cool month, with much of India and Alaska / Western Canada providing exceptions. Europe to North Asia was particularly warm, and January was the fifth warmest over the neighboring United States. This was mainly due to the remarkably tight circulation of the "polar vortex", which helped keep the Arctic air north of the mid-latitudes in bottles.
For the United States, the weather pattern was dominated by a low pressure area around Alaska and high pressure off the California coast. Alaska and western Canada remained colder in this pattern, which also caused moisture to flow across the Pacific Northwest and keep the southwest of the United States dry. In the middle of the month, the low pressure shifted a little to the east, bringing just enough cool air over the central United States to produce a good deal of rainfall.
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This was a warm January almost everywhere in the bottom 48.
NOAA
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January was dry in the Southwest, but wet in the Central Northwest and the Pacific Northwest.
NOAA
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The last month was the warmest January ever.
NOAA
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This was the dominant air pressure pattern in January. Low pressure in blue, high pressure in red.
NOAA
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The water level in the Great Lakes has recently reached records.
NOAA
As a result, drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest have eased somewhat, but continued in the Four Corners region. California was also brought into drought and drought worsened in parts of southern Texas.
NOAA has put the spotlight on the Great Lakes this month, which have record flood levels. After the wettest year in existence last year, January was warm and wet enough to keep the water level high – about 15 to 30 cm (0.5 to 1 foot) above average. Combined with very little ice cover on the lake, this has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in damage along the coastline as storms created impressive waves. For example, on January 10th and 11th, waves of up to 22 feet walled the shores of Lake Michigan between Chicago and Milwaukee.
Yes Ma'am
Based on historical trends and forecasts for slow patterns, NOAA can also give a general outlook for the coming spring months of March, April and May. (This is MAM in a climatological language in which no one has time for words.) An important factor is the El Niño / La Niña vibration in the Pacific, where models have been showing a continuation of the previous neutral conditions for about a year.
Over the next month, patterns in the Pacific are likely to build high pressure across the western United States and low pressure across the east. That would mean warmer and drier weather in California (possibly supported by low snow cover in the Sierra Nevada), but cooler weather in the southeast.
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Probabilities for above or below average temperatures in March.
NOAA
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Probabilities of above or below average rainfall in March.
NOAA
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Probabilities for above or below average temperatures in the spring months.
NOAA
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Probabilities of above or below average rainfall in the spring months.
NOAA
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Drought conditions are currently expected to increase in most areas.
NOAA
Outside, models for much of the US indicate above-average temperatures, although cooler air could plunge into the northern plains. And because sea ice retreats earlier as the world warms up, Alaska is a great choice for above-average spring temperatures. Precipitation prospects do not appear to be encouraging for either the drought regions or the Mississippi floods. The drier weather in the southwest and more rainfall are preferred for the eastern half of the United States.
At least the chances are. Late spring is a particularly difficult season. So you can still keep your fingers crossed if you hope for something other than the picture shown here.
