The UK government's worst case scenario predicts a death rate of 50,000 coronaviruses if self-isolation is not fully met, but the UK is currently not on the way to a figure as one source is familiar with the government's emergency discussions .
According to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject, the worst day for deaths is expected to be April 12, Easter Sunday this year.
According to the government scenario, the worst-case death toll would be based on partial compliance with quarantine by the population of around 50%, the source said.
A so-called "good" result under the circumstances would be fewer than 20,000 deaths in the UK, according to the source. A Downing Street spokeswoman declined to comment immediately.
"Unfortunately, the corona virus continues to grow," said Health Minister Matt Hancock. "The best scientific analysis is that the infection rate has doubled every three to four days."
Coronavirus deaths in the UK rose 24 percent in one day to 2,921 on April 1. By 0800 GMT on April 2nd, a total of 163,194 people had been tested, of whom 33,718 tested positive, the UK Department of Health said.
Stephen Powis, the national medical director of the National Health Service England, said during a briefing in Downing Street on Thursday that the mortality rate was "high for a few more weeks".
"There are still reasons to be hopeful," said Powis. "We see early academic evidence that the transmission rate in the community may have dropped below 1."
Powis said on Sunday that the UK would do well if it keeps the number of coronavirus deaths below 20,000.
According to a study by Imperial College last month, the outbreak would have caused more than half a million deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the United States if governments had failed to take action.
According to Johns Hopkins University, global coronavirus deaths exceeded 50,200 on Thursday when the pandemic hit the US and Europe.
(Except for the headline, this story was not edited by NDTV staff and published from a syndicated feed.)